ASML Holding NV on Wednesday reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter orders and warned that rising trade tensions and new US tariffs have clouded the global semiconductor outlook.
The Dutch chip equipment maker posted net bookings of €3.94 billion ($4.47 billion), missing the €4.82 billion average analyst estimate, according to Bloomberg data. Shares fell as much as 7.6% in Amsterdam following the release.
“The recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment and the situation will remain dynamic for a while,” Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said.
ASML, the sole producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines used to manufacture advanced chips, cited potential risks from US tariffs on equipment imports and retaliatory measures from other countries. The US has already restricted exports of ASML’s top-tier tools to China, and further scrutiny of semiconductor imports is underway.
Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said additional duties could apply not just to new systems but also to spare parts and services.
Despite the shortfall in orders, ASML reaffirmed its full-year revenue outlook, forecasting net sales between €30 billion and €35 billion for 2025. The firm also expects further growth in 2026, underpinned by artificial intelligence investments from major clients.
However, demand from China – which made up 27% of net system sales in the quarter – is expected to decline to about 20% of total revenue this year. ASML’s China revenue surged in 2024 due to demand for older chipmaking tools not affected by export bans.
The order miss follows fresh US restrictions announced by President Donald Trump, including a ban on Nvidia’s H20 chip sales to China and a broader tariff hike on global imports. Although some tech items such as smartphones and chip production equipment have been exempted, the Commerce Department is now investigating semiconductor imports for national security implications.
Citi analyst Andrew Gardiner called the order miss “disappointing” and noted that uncertainty from tariff policy is weighing on outlook visibility.
Barclays’ Simon Coles said ASML would need consistent quarterly bookings of €3–5 billion to meet market expectations but noted that key clients are holding back on major investments.
The company’s EUV machines accounted for €1.2 billion in bookings in Q1, and Fouquet maintained confidence that if AI momentum holds, ASML can still reach the upper end of its 2025 guidance.
